大家相信这个观点吗？

十年移民路_

Edmonton House Prices to Lead Nation

. a. ]- B4 T6 [6 E! o: b0 @Today TD Financial Group released a special report, predicting that the national average of home prices is expected to rise at close to 4% annually over the next 25 years. What a bold prediction! I mean, it's not like the average Canadian house price hasn't increased by about that same amount over the last 25 years. Of course, the national average doesn't mean that much on a local level but there were some predictions for Alberta as well...
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; Y) x/ O3 q0 MOne stat I found particularly interesting, is that when you compare the average price of a home in Edmonton in 1981 to 2005 it has actually decreased by .1% with inflation - the only decrease for the 14 cities included in the study. We've talked a lot in recent posts about how the Edmonton market is now just catching up with the rest of the country - I'd say that is some excellent proof!

0 W& O  Y/ Q; [- ~' F; B6 B"Historical evidence shows that larger cities (where land scarcity and demand for housing is strongest) have tended to have the largest price gains. This is why Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal have had the most rapid price gains over the past two decades. Over the next 25 years these cities are likely to continue to experience price gains above the national average, with Toronto and Vancouver benefiting from their attraction to immigrants, who will play a greater role in the pace of Canadian population growth going forward."
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, o7 b4 J1 \1 C8 X"Two cities that are likely to break away from their historical performance are Edmonton and Calgary. Home prices after removing the impact of inflation in these urban centres averaged close to a flat performance from 1981 to 2005. However, this is extremely unlikely to be repeated in the coming decades as the past weakness likely reflected the secular decline in oil prices in the 1980s and 1990s. While energy prices will prove volatile in the years ahead, the level of energy prices is  expect to remain well above their historical averages. Alberta also has the advantage of lower tax rates, stronger projected population growth, and a younger population than many other provinces. Thus, all of the stars are aligned for Calgary and Edmonton to experience above average price growth in the future. However, it should be stressed that the recent price gains in these markets have been completely unsustainable and will eventually come back to earth when the housing market becomes more balanced."

Translation: housing prices will continue to increase in Edmonton, at a faster pace than the national average, but NOT as fast as they have been recently. This does not mean prices will decrease or a bubble will burst, it just means the rate at which prices increase should slow down. Oh, and by the way, this report comes from the same bank that last week put Edmonton and Calgary on a "housing bubble watch."
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. f0 y6 K0 W0 v" z3 `6 i4 Z; `3 ~The complete article is worth a read and is available here: http://www.td.com/economics/special/ca0906_home_prices.pdf

3 Q3 w; [1 K4 F; D* J4 D& J- [Posted by MacLennan Sara on September 14, 2006 at 10:43 AM in Alberta's Economy, Canadian Real Estate, Edmonton Real Estate Market | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Z

完全相信，4%也就是说通货膨胀后，价格基本保值不变。

不过长期平均的4%不等同于年年4%，有些年份会比较多，好比30%，也有的年份会回落，使得长期评价还是4%.

smalleagle

原帖由 Z 于 2006-9-17 10:45 发表
完全相信，4%也就是说通货膨胀后，价格基本保值不变。

. p: A; G7 B5 Y不过长期平均的4%不等同于年年4%，有些年份会比较多，好比30%，也有的年份会回落，使得长期评价还是4%.

而且,mortagage的利率一定会高于inflation.

十年移民路_

原帖由 smalleagle 于 2006-9-17 11:24 发表

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而且,mortagage的利率一定会高于inflation.

这里我看懂了，把自己也看成是一个银行，就知道何时买/卖房子了。