好文推荐: Why the Great Divide Is Growing Between Affordable and Expensive U....

小黄

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2 ... pensive-u-s-cities/
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; O5 p/ Y4 \% Z0 f. w' }Why the Great Divide Is Growing Between Affordable and Expensive U.S. Cities

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/ l1 y: ~( \  F" ZIn the San Francisco-San Jose area, developed residential land grew by just 30% from from 1980 to 2010, while homes values grew by 188%. PHOTO: MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ/ASSOCIATED PRESS

9 T9 h; m( P0 s8 L4 U7 f& T/ VBy LAURA KUSISTO
Apr 18, 2016 7:41 am ET
46 COMMENTS
Across the country, a divide is emerging between cities that are growing outward and remaining affordable and ones that are hemmed in by geography and onerous zoning codes and are becoming  more and more expensive.
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( E- f$ [/ Z8 L: q4 P$ J( kAs a whole, U.S. cities are expanding as rapidly as they have throughout the last half-century. From the 1950s until the 2000s they have added about 10,000 square miles per decade, or an area roughly the size of Massachusetts, according to research by Issi Romem, chief economist at real-estate site BuildZoom, to be released Monday. But beneath the surface a divide is deepening.
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On the one side are cities such as San Francisco, Boston, New York and Miami that have slowed their pace of expansion dramatically since the 1970s, in part as they have added layer upon layer of building regulations. On the other side are cities concentrated in the southeast and Texas, which have grown outward and seen much slower price growth.


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2 m4 V1 O, A7 R  NThe developed residential area in Atlanta, for example, grew by 208% from 1980 to 2010 and real home values grew by 14%. In contrast, in the San Francisco-San Jose area, developed residential land grew by just 30%, while homes values grew by 188%.
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The developed residential area in Raleigh, N.C., grew by 219% in the same period, while home values grew by 27%. In Seattle, the developed area grew by 69%, while home values grew by 119%.

Mr. Romem draws the distinction succinctly: expansive cities versus expensive cities.

7 R) }/ O  ^: z+ x+ {( V“If you don’t let the city grow, you’re going to get prices going upward…and see the middle class being pushed out,” Mr. Romem said.
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& |; b+ a/ i7 g' L8 n0 VMr. Romem’s research reads on its face like an argument for suburban sprawl, which has come under fire both for its environmental consequences and tendency to lead to oversupply that can lead home prices to crash.

Mr. Romem said ideally cities would relax regulations and build upward rather than outward. But, he said, promoting development on empty fields is more politically feasible than building apartment towers in single-family neighborhoods, and thus likely to ease affordability pressures more quickly.
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Many of the more expensive cities are prevented from growing outward by natural barriers, such as oceans or mountains. Those cities are unlikely to grow significantly upward or outward in the next couple of decades, he said, and thus the price divide is likely to continue to widen.
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That could be good news for cities such as Atlanta and Raleigh, N.C., that have long been overshadowed by more economically powerful legacy cities.

“These cities are growing more important because of having more population. They have become more viable places for certain types of firms to locate,” he said.

费莫

物以稀为贵。必须的。

小黄

费莫 发表于 2016-4-19 10:34
' [, Y6 ^" T! r- x# e# ~# I物以稀为贵。必须的。

9 n/ s5 \+ v5 N6 h. H4 f# U3 N国内北上深，这里温哥华多伦多趋势很明显。
这个问题值得深思。是不是应该换一个扎根的地方了。

费莫

繁荣的经济活动一点追随大资金的投资方向，就像鱼儿追逐浮游生物。石油到底是不是人类的长期稀缺资源，阿省的油砂能否持续吸引投资资金？资金流向，短期资金流向，长期资金流向。要做大的举动，得好好想这些问题。

小黄

费莫 发表于 2016-4-20 05:43
繁荣的经济活动一点追随大资金的投资方向，就像鱼儿追逐浮游生物。石油到底是不是人类的长期稀缺资源，阿省 ...

这篇文章主要考虑的是城市规划的影响，而不是石油。
图表中的绝大多数城市也没有石油。

费莫

小黄 发表于 2016-4-20 12:51
这篇文章主要考虑的是城市规划的影响，而不是石油。
- p2 @" \' S4 r4 ]+ `8 v5 F& m图表中的绝大多数城市也没有石油。

这个我全明白。说的也没有错。但是搬离Alberta要仔细思量，不要冲动。就是一个大的location问题。

aalexwang

这就是所谓的马太效应。对于纯粹的投资者（尤其是不打算长期居住的国际投资者）来说，他们只需要关心物业的增值，那么拿加拿大做例子，因为房价的高涨，多伦多，温哥华肯定是首选。但对于生活在这里的人来说，物业的增值却远不是唯一需要考量的因素。比如在爱城，也许你的家庭净资产和多伦多，温哥华的朋友比低了不少，但很可能的情况是你住的房子的各方面条件却比他们的要好，更何况亚省的平均收入即使在目前如此糟糕的情况下还是加拿大最高。这也是目前在国内已经有很多的在北上广深的打工者开始出现的向二线城市转移的趋势的原因吧。所以你自己是一个投资者还是一个打工者的定位才是去哪个城市最重要的因素。

穷人