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0 Z" S; g, J! m" ]- C Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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% n3 Z" h2 i+ Q0 z! R In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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2 [- @7 ^: M+ [6 jPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
/ c; e3 T5 u! ?: p; F; z4 NBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN# B! k9 D3 ~/ X, ^( y2 b( `9 d$ P0 T
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4 U6 E6 s- V" ?' Q8 nThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. l! V: n. v5 Q: o. a, B- v6 D
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. $ ^% K! g8 m* ?6 {, s D8 V' [7 u
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. , g# m/ ?& a- [+ O9 N
L" k1 }# J7 P4 S" \1 \9 HDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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- E9 H2 i1 v' v* H9 [0 T"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ( T* T6 U4 M% O! y. Z. S/ T# O( L
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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7 m S* }: ?- q- d3 _0 VCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 p* P I1 p1 ]' A: v1 Z9 f
! ]" ^& \6 H" a* z- l' W/ A"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." # _0 q6 F i) Z* r: m3 E0 H. M
4 g. A0 V2 q! x5 O9 A. ~- \Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. % W0 b' p/ w L0 j9 o d7 ?
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT " q* L4 @) I' b% N% ]& \6 q
8 w+ y9 m g* rHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ; K( w, [/ |' c; X, S9 p9 C$ C
0 |" F0 ]% ?1 |3 s8 S3 j' D* zExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. . W6 {; D) c! E% w6 |6 ^
) G: |; z" t6 @. k7 {Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 8 O* t- }9 }& c/ p4 a" t# T
" b+ K3 `( }& P& M$ t2 [- \His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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3 x# h2 W' N5 a0 H"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ) Y' n% N/ @8 Y* H0 r
$ o9 _: {: D$ [9 H& Z" n% AYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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, W1 m/ S3 E6 T) ?" L$ _3 A6 b"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. + Y2 K* @' R; Z. [* {5 n8 P
* {) X; n: M7 X; hLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line6 s$ V0 B3 U+ [% i. a8 I0 j0 H
Next story: Building permits hit record
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