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发表于 2009-1-2 23:13
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原帖由 苹果鸭梨 于 2009-1-2 21:54 发表 
4 t! n3 ]8 {7 R h9 ?& {! [; D( {6 V) a5 j白银并没有黄金那样的功能，为什么也会上涨？
# z' ^4 U) I5 a2 l& p3 b$ @Did you know that today's dollar can only buy about 2% of what it could buy in 1900? Compare that to gold, which today buys 150% of what it could in 1900. So, in roughly a century, gold has catapulted to 75 times as much purchasing power as the dollar.6 E& ]1 \2 p- m+ _+ W
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! E( J- d5 q6 x% B$ x, TValue of Silver vs. Value of the Dollar: Above the Ground, Silver is Rarer Than Gold
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1 S2 @$ I( Z0 ]) H, LThat's right, silver is rarer than gold. But now you ask "Greg, you dolt, why the heck does an ounce of gold cost 54 times(Now is near 80,费莫comments) as much as an ounce of silver?" I'll get to that in a moment, but first I'll show some more about silver's relative rarity.
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1 i. i% }( F% _1 R" UThere's less above-ground silver than gold…the main reason for that is the fact that nearly all dug-up silver immediately goes to industrial use. Silver's one of the most useful elements on earth, with incredibly high thermal and electric conductivity.
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4 V& U+ p: p' V9 Z! jIn addition to the rabid industrial hunger for silver, the world's Central Banks, including America's, have sold off or used up the vast majority of their silver stockpiles. America ran through her reserves to issue popular silver coins. It didn't seem like a waste at the time because the price snoozed at low levels throughout the mid-eighties to the early nineties.
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Today, industry uses only 5% of exhumed gold. And, obviously, gold's industrial use only grew out of the industrial era. For over 2,000 years, hard money, jewelry, art and other lasting artifacts formed the sole uses for gold.
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That means nearly all of the gold ever yielded by the earth sits in gold bars, coins, or jewelry, shining through the ages with pride. All while almost every unearthed ounce of silver perishes in industrial use.+ S8 P/ j+ B* D
?- L. r- x+ s6 b(Now, an army of grinning grannies could liquidate their heirloom tea sets and serving spoons with $25/ounce silver. I wouldn't want to get in their way. But such an unpredictable unloading would unlikely have a lasting effect on industry's necessary inventories of silver.)9 }6 P" @2 J0 X* H& X
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That's why there are 1.6 billion ounces of gold inventory compared to only 300 million ounces of silver inventory. That's 5.33 times as much gold as silver. For the sheer heck of it, let's translate that into dollar value…3 ]7 z. v4 w" }# I1 Z- V* i
, c. X0 X9 a/ W9 J5 O/ U: NAt $554 per ounce, the entire gold inventory has a worth of $886.4 billion. At $10.33 per ounce, the entire silver inventory's worth $3.1 billion. So, the total mass of above-ground gold's dollar-worth outweighs silver's by 285 times. Even though silver's five times rarer.
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) l' i! k) z+ VAnd, there's no argument I can recite that explains why silver's not as good an inflation hedge or dollar-bastion as gold. You probably remember that the British Empire measured the first world reserve currency, the pound sterling, in silver., l* p/ b& m8 ]- A: e
* K B; s9 D% `' J( VIn fact, if the argument for a precious metal's worth takes its power solely based on rarity, then you might think that silver should be worth MORE than gold. And yet, ounce per ounce, gold's 5.33 times more beloved than her slighted silvery sister. Of course, if more people start figuring this out and begin to stockpile silver for wealth protection and appreciation purposes, then silver might equalize herself more with her glistery sister.
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And, although silver's ramped up on a tear, hitting a 22-year high…even though the silver market's notoriously volatile, it could have even more explosive mid to long-term upside if its price equalized more with gold's.
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This kind of situation makes the case for higher silver prices based on pure supply and demand. But, you probably have heard the mutterings about a possible silver ETF from Barclays that would buy bullion directly, similar to the gold ETF with the symbol GLD. Now, that new ETF would definitely put a strain on the already slim silver inventory supply.! ?0 i, P5 d- u) V/ D
# ?: |5 _' k3 l8 F[ 本帖最后由 费莫 于 2009-1-2 23:15 编辑 ] |
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