Power switch

honcho · 发表于 2005-4-18 09:37

Power switch

Silence, sulking and suspicion have crept into Sino-Japanese relations as the two nations struggle for supremacy, writes Jonathan Watts

Thursday April 14, 2005

Guardian Unlimited

After decades of generally appalling peacetime relations between Tokyo and Beijing, it is hard to be shocked by demonstrations of boiling hostility or icy indifference on either side. But even by the dire standards of the past half-century, the two countries have recently plumbed alarming new depths of mutual misunderstanding that bodes ill for the future of east Asia's two most important nations.
This is not just a case of historical resentment, but a sign of a disturbing deterioration in relations as the balance of power in the region shifts from Tokyo to Beijing.

The past week has been among the worst from the grass roots to the highest level. Last weekend saw Violent anti-Japanese protests in Beijing and at least two other major Chinese cities, diplomatic protests by Tokyo and a very public snub by the Chinese premier: Wen Jiabao said Japan must make amends for its past wrongdoings before it can be considered as a possible permanent member of the United Nations security council.

The spark for the latest row was Tokyo's approval of new history textbooks that China and South Korea say whitewash Japan's wartime atrocities. But history is only part of the problem. The long list of recent protests shows that frustrations are not limited to a specific issue or location.

In August 2003, demonstrators in the north-eastern province of Heilongjiang took to the streets after the agonising death of a construction worker who uncovered a Japanese chemical bomb left over from the second world war. The same month, 1 million people signed an internet petition against a Japanese bid to build the lucrative Shanghai-to-Beijing high-speed rail link. Fury erupted again in September 2003 when the media reported that 400 Japanese tourists had hired 500 Chinese prostitutes for a two-day orgy in the south-eastern resort Zhuhai.

But the most bizarre display of anger was sparked in Xian by three Japanese students who had attempted to entertain their classmates with a risque skit that involved them wearing red brassieres and false genitals made from paper cups hanging from their waists. This ill-advised but well-intentioned stunt was deemed so offensive that thousands of Communist Youth League members marched on their dormitory to demand an apology. En route, the protesters are said to have smashed the windows of at least one Japanese restaurant.

Violence also erupted during the Asia Cup last summer when a large mob of Chinese fans rained bottles on a coach full of Japanese supporters and broke the window of a Japanese diplomatic car.

At a government level, political relations between Asia's two most powerful nations are at their lowest point in decades.

China's leaders have refused regular summit meetings with Japan's prime minister Junichiro Koizumi since 2001, when he began annual visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine to Japan's fallen soldiers, including war criminals. Increasingly anxious about the hostility and growing strength of its giant neighbour, the government in Tokyo has more than halved its economic aid to China.

"What we have now is a relationship that is economically warm and politically cold," said Professor Zhou Yongsheng from China Foreign Affairs University, an expert in Sino-Japanese relations. "It is extremely abnormal that the leaders of two such important nations have not met each other for three years other than on the sidelines of international conferences."

In fact, the only top-level meeting was a hastily arranged sideshow on the fringes of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Santiago last November. It ought to be shocking that east Asia's two most powerful men had to travel to Chile to find an acceptable venue. But tetchiness and distance are becoming the norm despite the increasing need for dialogue to resolve rising concerns on a number of issues.

Tokyo needs a reassurance over Beijing's intentions to prospect for gas on the edge of waters it claims are part of its economic exclusion zone. For its part, Beijing is concerned that Japan's defence agency recently named China as a threat and drew up three scenarios to repel a possible invasion.

The dangers of silence, sulking and suspicion were all too evident on November 10, when Japan mounted a rare peacetime policing operation after spotting a Chinese Han-class submarine in its territorial waters south of Okinawa. It took several days before tensions were partially eased by a half-hearted apology from the Chinese government during a private meeting with Japanese diplomats.

Who or what is to blame for this chill? There are no easy answers. The deterioration of relations is largely the result of one of the world's most disastrous diplomatic fudges. Compared to Germany, Japan has been far more reluctant to accept blame for the second world war.

As a result, attempts to restore diplomatic relations with its neighbours was based on top-level compromise rather than grassroots penitence. Instead of paying compensation - which would imply guilt - the government offered trillions of yen of economic aid. So much, in fact, that Japan was the world's biggest overseas development aid donor for most of the 1990s, with the bulk of its largesse going to China.

But while this pleased the communist leaders in Beijing, who used the money for dams, bridges and airports, the Chinese public was left largely unaware that in the past 25 years their economic growth had been financed to the tune of 3 trillion yen by Tokyo. Instead, they read newspaper headlines about elderly "comfort women" and the relatives of germ warfare victims being denied justice in Tokyo's courts. So, despite numerous apologies by its leaders, Japan is still seen as the country that cannot say sorry.

The cash is now drying up. Japan has cut its aid budget to China by 20% for the past three years and Koizumi hinted last November that it could soon be completely axed. Many commentators believe the Chinese government is now punishing Tokyo by deliberately stoking up anti-Japanese feeling, which also serves to distract attention from the huge income gap that has opened up in society.

It is certainly true that anti-Japanese sentiment is one of the few political passions permitted by the Communist party. This is particularly true on the web - now an extremely influential medium in China.

Sites advocating democracy, religious freedom or union rights are closed down by the communist authorities and their operators often arrested. But there are countless sites filled with abuse of Japan. Chinese patriotic organisations make no secret of the fact that it is has become easier to operate since president Hu Jintao and prime minister Wen Jiabao came to power in 2003.

But China's leaders are not alone in whipping up nationalist feeling. It is no coincidence that bilateral relations have worsened since Koizumi began making annual visits to Yasukuni - a diplomatic slap in the face for China. Along with the popularity of Tokyo's nationalist governor, Shintaro Ishihara, and government moves to revise the constitution and redefine the role of the self-defence forces, many in Beijing fear Japan is being encouraged by the US to abandon its pacifist stance so it can help contain a resurgent China. Such fears were heightened in February when Japan and the US mentioned a peaceful Taiwan strait for the first time as a "common strategic objective" in a statement on their joint security treaty.

Old-fashioned realpolitik would suggest that Japan has little choice but to cuddle up closer to the US. China is no longer a pitiful backward nation in need of charity. It has become a rival for regional influence and resources. It is racing Japan to sign free trade pacts with other Asian nations and competing for energy supplies - a particularly tetchy issue as the rows over the Siberian oil pipeline and the South China Sea gas fields have demonstrated.

Although Japan is still far richer than its giant neighbour, the gap is closing. For more than a decade, China's economy has surged forward by 9% a year, while Japan has crawled along at a rate of 1% annual growth.

With Beijing's military spending rising at a rate of 10% while Tokyo is forced into defence cuts, many Japanese see China's rise as a threat. For them, getting closer to the US - to the point of being a "Britain of Asia" - is a necessary defensive step.

But there are other dynamics at work on the relationship besides nationalism. China's economic rise has helped to lift Japan out of its decade-long slump. Apart from the EU, Japan is China's largest business partner, with bilateral trade rising by more than 30% in 2004. In an unusually proactive diplomatic move, Beijing has also hosted six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Greater regional cooperation and integration - a European rather than American style diplomatic strategy - might be one way to reverse the worrying trend in bilateral relations. But a multilateral solution is unlikely any time soon. Instead east Asia must brace for a troubled rivalry as one great nation rises and another declines.

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