鲜花( 0) 鸡蛋( 0)
|
澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
( ^' E! T- b. c: }5 [' r+ y9 H% @( k4 @/ o% ?
, L) {3 X- n0 y' F% ^3 Ghttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197) @+ H- }7 @: q- F7 ^2 j2 k
- I2 a7 g2 _. y* | `4 J8 `/ G7 G* B22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer) A- }2 T' a& d7 j1 h( b
- B$ Z) O M4 f) Q$ c* Q8 B* A6 zScience and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas: d \, f5 w4 ?# w7 N
) P3 E4 t6 w% FA study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
0 B' ?6 n2 h% R" b. k* G9 h( `, d1 a1 k) ]
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.* i& e4 S+ J' e$ a/ }
( I% Y8 _8 [) u' P
The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.
6 ?! b# O1 d' D/ m' l* C6 m
: L* Z# H3 G' G; e: |/ o( D9 v" bThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
) D! p) x8 j/ w" z5 }3 |& I7 C b/ D' W
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.' I$ j( s0 @0 v# v r
% Q+ a; N# Y5 T1 C, j( I! @7 Z
Their means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part. {* j# f& R" `
% J: \9 q1 Q9 K: c* e! P
One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.
% r, R4 A/ K* D& l6 P. Y6 i E1 t8 }) W/ k, o4 s% Z( z
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.( e" M5 P! t$ K* C/ D
/ ?7 F& j' _1 F" ?\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.
9 H$ J9 T; |/ e" k p: i$ t( }3 d5 j) r+ O
\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
& n8 z5 o1 W: f0 f* B
1 [9 w0 F, y& m4 _) s7 k\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"
. n: t+ M' @, a3 n5 g1 ~+ r+ x2 A0 G# z, A4 z3 l% ^
Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"7 b; q. W8 f1 ^3 `7 U* I' k
1 G( F4 X/ c7 |- E' G9 b( O8 B
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.! r d+ i# G; e. d. k
6 D0 `9 q5 W+ c1 W+ fThey found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.9 p7 U9 O5 {8 z4 g- v
* E7 H/ w/ R/ O5 E* w
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
( E7 V: U* Z' o4 U# T/ [* R
% Y, g( v; u. j4 ~However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.
+ R' ?( H& K4 E3 f0 ]. t; u& x l2 d# J; L) F
\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.
9 S4 D; l: ~$ \ y6 ?# u$ N/ L! P1 T) O* g
However, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\". 1 z8 o" u w" k
* X: N1 q6 H1 k( `0 O1 v\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.0 S$ g" t+ H- h3 R' f
" V" y T. t/ ?
\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\" |
|