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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation2 U/ @' j- ^% N4 G" J2 k( K
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long, R' o- ?# ^$ @) D) K
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
0 L( c5 q! O3 a0 _) @impose liquidation values.9 C' k$ i( A2 X( A+ w, z( ~
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In
5 {/ m# |6 s, t$ s' n0 QAugust, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
: c9 T3 e3 }3 V3 c6 E The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension8 l' C: J2 _, s4 b1 `/ w2 j
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.* T3 ?" y( U2 f3 g* }: m v
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A look at credit markets6 q) H/ ?/ N( F+ I. B
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
4 M3 V1 H/ G, l; E- B& MSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.6 C+ M% U3 h& W- {
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%, q, l+ B* ~! {; ]2 M2 p P0 \' p
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $16 ^- F3 R6 w& `/ r4 a. e, I5 u; \- S
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
9 G3 x" k/ T+ W! w4 w# Z2 caccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade+ p5 J4 y/ h( Q% C. ~3 u
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are4 \6 u9 \ B# Z5 N4 p4 x' R
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield.: m( B, n) `, d6 A
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
! I+ m/ I4 `# b4 D- Jfinding financing.
/ P. C& J8 ~1 M$ d* m Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they: n* q; @ c) R: S2 w7 U6 @
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
+ I& m% A7 P& X# \ Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and) l( Q) V& B, G( q. M. l# o! o
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were
: V* k p! K, F1 Xgoing up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for& G8 I$ E( t. m; W% ]0 F8 J
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
- D1 `* c& ~$ z" [8 E( r8 e European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain$ V( N& z6 r# [ I
today.
4 }) n+ p$ `& ?$ ?: K- H Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
5 j' j9 ] ^$ lemerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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