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6 d1 I. p4 p5 Y3 U% x7 B4 U- b6 I Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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2 T: ^7 l5 X$ ~- B! d! g7 l In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007& B9 d# R1 N1 u1 P4 B& ^3 K* u
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN- x( E4 B" Q U$ u
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. $ J7 B Q2 f. s+ ~, l- Q
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. # B2 [) ?, H3 ]% E9 N' g' T: t0 i
1 R3 B0 E$ V" f- K( ~/ F6 ]6 rBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. % a1 n7 |7 B- ~8 b, Z3 `' c' A0 `( a
0 t$ H7 S. ]- a# d# s0 p8 nDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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( S1 _* {7 w5 y' C" }4 L# k3 d"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." $ E% D3 Z. j* V7 i" R% z5 h( W- ~6 w
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 3 `( Z4 m. ^% J+ v K% x
3 t4 p+ \) S. i"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 1 _6 g' \$ ~6 h1 L3 ]; U
! ^* F5 K, }- u" T. m8 ICanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 s/ e" P, j: H2 }
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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`, B8 y0 T- NStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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4 f' t1 T u( Q$ W5 K2 n* g8 Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 2 r: i. P# z7 x( _: ]4 _: Q
- q- b& y! G0 g* ?"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. * P0 B' C7 I& t" w0 q7 A# \
0 m; I* Y% V( y0 nNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 4 R+ P e9 }7 ~1 s9 V
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ' r) r9 \' g5 L$ n7 a
2 V. |/ `' i2 G) \* Q2 x$ D# H4 ]Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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) q/ {' D/ b8 N% ^5 D6 z"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. % o8 ?8 d3 x. D
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : y: X) V8 f- h8 D/ i+ i$ z+ W
2 g+ n' e3 ^$ i, F) R"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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% c) a3 m+ n% ~. \, mLet the good times roll. - A7 r9 k1 H4 [8 n+ k
% O2 E6 m& A- {& l( N* zPrevious story: Bottom Line
$ M0 d6 V% k9 r7 C6 X( B/ mNext story: Building permits hit record+ O0 d8 [$ F& L5 W- \/ Y6 O
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9 s5 w- A0 y9 l5 E( k L; c3 @ This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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