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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts( R; s a4 [* K% |5 l# e8 U+ r
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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, l A' d6 ?, b0 {Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.8 F3 v# U! A. t; W. u
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! S9 y6 D2 _: f1 ?4 n# x; |1 s! N) Q
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.& V8 z% o" ^( H6 P9 @+ L+ R
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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5 X+ e) {& m+ f2 h4 T7 WIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year. y+ m" {% e5 U: Z/ D2 ]
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014./ a* {( d* o% }" {& S
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.2 F. ~2 w1 Q& w
2 T& N& }& F- V* h1 RHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.0 l/ `6 z, h; k1 A& h6 |: V9 C
2 M$ N2 \5 R- v& b/ ^In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar." M% P: f+ ] T' W6 R
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
0 y5 c, U; s% ?7 ~) k+ t T" ]Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
& x3 b( Y: i8 G" t' ?- f i" uThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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t7 p. m1 D, k. C- d" ]! [The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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- Q3 C* s8 f1 L$ u4 ?4 m9 W“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”' ?, h7 F, L& t8 [: L
0 l; I. R# [0 j3 I9 x* I9 h& oFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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( o: D. ^$ {$ \9 ?& G( y& z# CCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.. n; A; c6 x4 m( u* ?) H. F: E
8 W+ o; }* N+ T! QContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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4 P$ L; V S# E& g5 ~The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.2 @/ A: _$ i) H) V
. h) U/ H# ]/ ~- z6 t. C. ^/ \5 RMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.) M' ]( ^+ W- P* L; ]2 C0 G( q
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.$ ^% X5 G+ [6 Y" y* `
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.$ F6 o. K9 A. W4 P( _
4 s6 l) B$ a z% @“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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