 鲜花( 4348)  鸡蛋( 18)
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发表于 2009-1-22 16:48
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这是刚刚POST的某首席专家的推荐交易。和我刚才的想法一致。不同的是，我今天已经在1.3710做了一个来回了。他有可能会踏空。
' E9 S1 T0 T5 p' CGBP/USD
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Buying GBP/USD for a correction after excessive sell-off# ?2 X) ]2 M& h+ ^- R
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Posted January 22, 2009--1530ET% `& k) n& i% }* E; W8 {
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Support% ~. R8 r0 f: _* `
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, L& j3 R8 [# w8 h1 D* D( z 1.3750 Intra-day support from 4-hour low close Jan. 22) |9 K0 r6 T! T/ n( v% M: H5 h4 d
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1.3685 June 2001 low; 1.3690 Jan. 22 intra-day low
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1.3620 Jan 21 intra-day low. T% `" h4 x7 ]& z5 u! z2 v1 O& L
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Resistance
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1.4030 Intra-day highs Jan. 21 & 22
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' A9 b* l3 F8 p' C" x# G( Y2 P2 A 1.4270 Broken trend line off Nov. and Dec. lows ' W/ y1 Y$ }8 W" [ q; n
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1.4470 Trend line breakdown level between 1.4470/4500
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GBP/USD broke lower under 1.4500 to start this week, bringing the declines since last Friday's peak around 1.4900 to nearly 13 big figures, peak to trough. However, the last two trading days have seen significant rebounds from intra-day tests of the downside, including a false break below key 2001 lows at 1.3685. The result is a Hammer pattern at the minimum, and more likely a Tweezer Bottom pattern on daily candlesticks, an important reversal indicator after a move lower. Sentiment remains bearish Sterling, but I think it's extreme and Cable is likely oversold at the moment. On Friday, Jan. 23, the UK will release advance 4Q GDP estimates and the risk is for a weaker than forecast reading of -1.2% QoQ, but I would like to use remaining weakness in GBP/USD to get long based on the Tweezer pattern and a likely excess short positioning. Lastly, a G7 source has indicated that GBP weakness has become an issue and will likely be discussed at the Feb 14 G7 meeting in Rome, though he stopped short of saying GBP will be mentioned in the commmunique. Still, the prospect of further weakness eliciting a G7 response greatly increases the risks of being short GBP/USD from current levels and raises the potential for a short squeeze higher. 4 h' X8 e7 ]$ D! w1 S+ P
. ?7 I4 H u+ ~5 _$ _. aMy strategy will be to buy half of a long GBP/USD position at 1.3820 and the second half at 1.3720, for an average long rate of 1.3770 (currently 1.3895). The stop loss is relatively tight at 1.3590, given the pronounced GBP weakness and still bearish outlook, just below the Jan. 21 intra-day low, for a total risk of 180 pips. The take profit objective is for 50% at 1.4250 trend line resistance from prior lows and for the remaining 50% at this weeks break down level at 1.4470, for an average take profit rate of 1.4360, or a gain of nearly 600 pips if the position is fully entered |
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楼主: 紫光
狗仔卡
显身卡
发表于 2009-1-23 11:56
