Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
  l/ T$ _9 p. w4 k" ^4 dIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
1 h1 M" R% g) z! |TD can give you 4.2%.
BMO can give you 4.3%.
! G5 l1 p0 E8 g% ?RBC can give you 4.0%.
4 I5 \# y' j) R5 j  o$ Q7 `" C& @(Roughly)
, x9 R( a& c8 j; ]8 FIf the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
! \3 }- C( P. j" C- @  l9 G( j; eAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
7 ~$ |" S1 V/ T) sFrom the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
- ]' x* J+ V% t6 A7 b. m! \Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000
. _8 r  ?; v* T9 G/ d( e! dDeposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
( J! G- J: {/ X; l3 {/ V' X- m  bIf US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
I am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
( S- V( M5 S: h; ]; `But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
1 o1 \4 O( n9 U

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
( E4 M: r) t0 l' J/ B; RNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
( f0 G6 T* \% U0 J8 I# Q2 \If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

) S9 q" w: a3 \' _1 k9 G

$ l# V1 v, B0 k: y( }1 I+ t& X7 a这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
+ [9 K( f$ c, h9 ^" @而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

* D% B( c9 k8 {4 }呵呵，多打了个0。
& x( Q2 T$ v/ L
多谢。
, X7 Q$ v1 h0 f( ~/ C; G% G
( M. N: s) f, G' B9 S& f把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
% J# J8 K3 M4 R, l, S6 W政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

- a- Q. o( {: z) O) [现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
Rate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"

; b) u5 k2 u: F) O1 [. j+ b) {[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]