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本帖最后由 yxia 于 2009-5-23 13:57 编辑
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不是舆论保存低调，也不是有工会的建筑公司打压和边远地区建设的高成本使油砂公司改变战略， 下面这篇文章说出真正的原因：
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Developing oil sands to become even more costly: CERI
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Published: Tuesday, May 12, 20091 S% a$ s: O# a3 |3 V) v4 b) B% }
. c" J" t1 u8 tEven as oil briefly crossed above US$60 a barrel Tuesday, what's becoming increasingly clear is that Canada's oil sands won't be the Holy Grail everyone expected to meet the energy supply needs of the future.
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As shown in a report Tuesday by the Canadian Energy Research Institute, the cost of complying with climate-change legislation that is being aggressively pushed in the United States will make Canada's oil sands, already the world's most expensive to develop, even more costly. # |5 |! p0 H$ i! H/ d" K
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It will probably also make them the world's most regulated.
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4 c$ p3 W- _9 O2 }3 }3 D. JCERI, an independent research organization funded by Canadian industry and governments, said oil prices would have to climb as high as US$105 a barrel to pay for the cost of integrating technologies so greenhouse-gas emissions from the oil sands are comparable to those of conventional oil.
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And this would not be an overnight solution. The technologies, ranging from widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage for plants using natural gas as a power source, to replacing natural gas with gasification or nuclear technologies, would take some two decades to implement fully. Newer technologies would take even longer.
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]$ W) ?. L- r: h2 u7 r6 lWith many oil-sands projects already delayed or cancelled as a result of the oil-price collapse and tighter credit, the new legislation "is going to squeeze out even more projects," said study co-author David McColl, research director at CERI. "[The oil sands are] not going to be the big boom that everyone thought it was.", T! ^) [8 ]+ ~* O) G1 X
; [ X5 b' W) l1 c: E) MLess oil from the oil sands means a smaller cushion to soften the next global supply crunch, which is inevitable once the world economy recovers because of widespread project cancellations that took place around the world in the past year.$ y* j' ~9 m+ W. u' ?
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CERI estimates that during the next five to six years, capacity growth in the oil sands will be 15% to 40% lower than expected.
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) u, d4 W' F. ^4 [In fact, CERI predicts there will be no production growth until 2013, with the deposits eventually yielding 3.5 million barrels a day by 2030, rather than the five or six million barrels a day that had been talked about.
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Established operators will likely push forward and may even benefit from the coming crunch that will lead to higher oil prices, but new developers may give their oil-sands strategy a sober second thought.7 u* Y1 j; i' F, l
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Consumers should not expect a free ride. Higher oil costs will mean higher prices at the pumps. To put it in perspective, the last time the price of oil was about US$105-a-barrel was at the end of September, 2008, which translated into an average gasoline price in Canada of about $1.215 per litre, according to MJ Ervin & Associates, a firm that monitors gasoline prices.
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Support from Canadian governments, similar to the $2-billion already pledged by the Alberta government to get a handful of projects off the ground, will be unavoidable. Moving to widespread adoption of carbon capture and storage will cost tens of billions of dollars and involve aggressive construction of new pipeline infrastructure. Those are billions that won't be available for such programs as health care and education, nor to boost energy supplies so they are affordable. |
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