鲜花( 0) 鸡蛋( 0)
|
澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士
2 a8 f+ g% B+ s( e. J+ K
, i% l, q, A$ r6 {! A/ s$ Y* `6 A2 x1 o' A q
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-128111979 V7 ^5 U2 E2 r, f ?3 I' k E' V
* B% ~% t! G/ h. N. r0 I- H& c2 M) N* y
22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer5 @9 q# @* R9 v- Z0 \- E( F4 D( Z
# \5 Y* i. ^2 o0 _3 \* x* gScience and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas8 m$ N' H u; u; V8 @1 t; P
0 M5 c' z C$ q5 }- a; [' r
A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.
* g$ O: [) w/ v t8 U. X+ R; c" v% k$ l
The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.5 x" s# m0 _( \; f6 h' M+ r: @
2 C# l: F' u3 Q1 _# ]
The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.% R2 r/ [. `# B4 W+ A. _9 ~; |! Z
; c2 O. i2 G8 mThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
! \0 c* k( f' S5 |9 u5 [* ~, w8 g8 Z
The team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.
; m. o# |/ D; a7 L# O4 \) q7 [/ q+ J: d8 |1 M0 }& A4 o. ~* ^8 L
Their means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part., W6 n8 ~- }9 P9 }
! M) j( @6 x% Z, {6 M) Y) MOne of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.1 _7 r+ u; y0 O8 Q* C2 k; q
- C8 W3 ]% ^5 j& v
At its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.5 f; B; B8 r% a' K, A( s% p
5 z, y% y( _: H5 Z2 l; z
\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona." f: G& K* E( j, q# d% ^* T9 P
/ I- z% g$ M Q/ ~: I\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.# O: f& I1 L* V2 R$ f2 x" [5 k
1 d3 u% e9 B) L3 y/ w* a
\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"
+ Z0 w4 L7 b) k1 m+ B) h; g4 q3 M4 f& Y# P1 \3 l6 h
Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"3 s1 b7 G# i" i; W- S- w b, E
' F* Y; @. \, ?/ @! x
The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.
+ Y& t: z4 k) R' R* b2 u! C: D' _
They found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.* U/ X; H5 C5 O
; v4 M3 q7 `+ M6 a! i% S: C
And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
; T7 O* G1 [6 a" _/ m9 W) C( m, M) S
However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.; X; h6 f2 D; Y: ? S: T. q
3 n: F! E$ q/ e% \0 ~1 f\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.
. R) ]2 {5 D7 u( D3 X( o
9 V1 P j0 n& {- D: j$ xHowever, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".
6 v. B* f% ^+ ~
& _6 E( f% ]3 G- M& e\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.
s# c( h9 N; O `
0 ?$ [; P$ \, S+ O; @8 U1 F\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\" |
|