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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation1 V$ v/ U0 u% O9 q1 u, R" b
 The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
. K0 Z" k) }1 q3 G9 O* xas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may" E9 I, H3 R. m/ t: m1 M
impose liquidation values.# V* @4 [8 K4 b9 |0 U& m
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In3 c+ r( H; s [. e& H7 H' T' H6 }, x! ^
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 D) R2 H$ d0 N4 m5 j( L! w4 ?
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension
$ X3 `/ Q: l- W7 b' i* h, n' O+ Bscrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.( ?3 X2 ^! s& X' _5 p
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A look at credit markets
3 |# X( d; a+ c% l, b' |) R Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
% Z! G% R) z8 i* g* ? HSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.
1 [1 N" f. [& u3 ]) l6 ^ High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%# O* c) ^ i- x1 a, U
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $15 Z( H! I; x, b: |
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have" B' e: G$ g9 J( [0 Z: f A6 }- g
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade
+ O7 [1 [* E4 b+ Z! y+ [! jCCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
# C Y R+ L4 w( i) _8 R8 cpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.4 v9 o3 B, T0 g5 r5 J; H! p
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble. x' x4 k3 _& S0 E w8 x
finding financing.1 b# }! c$ U/ N% u2 r9 Z$ O
 Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
, q( Z# z" n) n3 [5 H# bwere subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
% [: S# K0 _# @# G Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and# i! G, G' F. g* V
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were) u3 [! l4 t: s2 z3 s) r9 t) D
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for6 v& V! x: {" m& [# e. v. ]; O" P
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
2 S- ]8 c: u8 X9 f European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
" Z9 N8 c- \7 ~3 ~+ `; @today.
+ \, ]$ \* A/ S* I Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
+ O- X' S6 Z; Y' I$ X9 Memerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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