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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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3 I8 E9 E: t( e3 s9 E In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.7 C% I4 u+ c) W& d2 \1 x
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Thu, January 11, 20070 C! n* w+ }7 z+ ?7 B
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
6 o5 W, |0 a" f5 l( S* i& `+ e5 HBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + g5 J2 L1 L+ b m R7 t- W
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. * |# a0 y% ?9 l& {5 p
( x. v, W* {- B5 s- ?But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 5 o) s6 E' s! B! y
3 y& X- T% M7 B, R& d. i# }* HDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 3 C& b0 \% U6 T- \
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) I& Z+ r# |+ Y- t) f4 ~+ F"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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5 U ?2 i/ p X% y8 T7 `"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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, H1 D1 |2 H& `$ \1 X# N$ a" x"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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0 ^( n2 i0 t7 b8 Z; c6 K/ V$ |8 KStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. , P3 J% f- F1 A
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 3 _! G: p; J$ U: E# q8 h
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. : M. C( J% M2 k
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- @0 x$ k2 v( W1 U3 `, d" ?He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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! ~' z. q" t) j" ]4 y, nExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 8 @- ?" L5 x, w& v
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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% D0 D0 {3 ?. Q6 N"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. . O3 \ O3 C; f9 ?
8 j) o2 Z; ?5 n" m2 P7 cSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. / T' I/ V0 x# b0 `( |- v
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. & R7 V, S4 r4 e& e" S
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Let the good times roll.
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3 z2 I9 t5 `4 J+ W& E' I& yPrevious story: Bottom Line3 I& E4 v6 Y' a; d7 h, F9 a
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
