Be prepared for a possible house market collapse

smalltown

West to lead the way
Calgary's set to have Canada's fastest growing economy in 2007, but experts fear our city may be headed for a fall. Is Cowtown pricing itself out of prosperity?
. |/ |3 n* d9 @Geoffrey Scotton, Calgary Herald
8 u2 ~) _1 ?+ M) yPublished: Wednesday, April 11, 2007
. B+ B; u" C1 G5 n+ g4 SCalgary's growth will outpace all other Canadian cities again in 2007, according to estimates released Tuesday by the Conference Board of Canada -- but the organization is worried this city may be setting itself up for a fall.

In its thrice-yearly Metropolitan Outlook, the Ottawa-based economic research institute said Calgary's economy will expand by 4.2 per cent in real terms -- and quite possibly more -- in 2007, building on what it described as a "remarkable" 6.9 per cent gain in 2006.

2 J5 h0 t& r1 e+ q) \: i7 L( jThat would make Calgary's economy Canada's fastest growing for an unprecedented fifth straight year.

* {% D1 b3 Z* B, I9 M* w+ z! n: ?It's quite amazing," said the board's director of Metropolitan Outlook, economist Mario Lefebvre. "It's pretty hard to repeat as No. 1, but you are doing it almost systematically."

# J$ k& w. @* Y: P, z" b% D" X- s" jHowever, Lefebvre is concerned Calgary has grown too fast for too long, and that shortages apparent in labour, materials, housing, office space, infrastructure, transit and health care may be just a foreboding of much larger problems.

In short, he's nervous Calgary is pricing itself out of prosperity by becoming too expensive to attract the migrants and immigrants it absolutely needs to grow. It's a scenario that could lead to skyrocketing wages and in turn an economic slowdown followed by a collapse in housing prices.

"If a soft correction does not materialize, maybe at some point it will mean a hard correction will come," said Lefebvre.
/ J% P* t+ G% o! m' X; w
. p) U, V( M) J) z! D' l"I'm worried that if a correction does not take place, it will eventually come -- but come harder than expected."

Calgary's expected performance in 2007 puts it at the head of pack dominated by western Canadian cities, as the top five municipalities are all west of Manitoba and include Saskatoon, Victoria and Vancouver.

& d- S: j" h. I, k, k+ U' YRight behind Calgary is the provincial capital of Edmonton, with 3.7 per cent growth, making 2007 the fourth consecutive year that Calgary and Edmonton have ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in growth among Canadian cities. The conference board estimates that Edmonton's economy expanded by 5.9 per cent in 2006.

" ]2 e4 V- |* DOver the medium term, Calgary's economic expansion is forecast to moderate further from the frantic pace of 2006 due to smaller increases in investment, construction and services sector growth, with a four per cent gain in 2008 and a 3.8 per cent increase in 2009.
. i) [8 O- |7 _& A7 ^; j2 Q! M
- i1 t) A3 V" e' }& v: g( TThe conference board believes a recovering central Canadian economy will spur Toronto to a better performance and lift it to top spot by 2009.

It would be the first time in more than half a decade Calgary has not held the No. 1 spot.

( j8 Y) N& z; ^Other forecasts of Calgary activity are similar to those from the conference board.

' N0 M: a- {, K, [4 c/ q$ JCity of Calgary manager of corporate economics Patrick Walters told the Herald the city is planning for an expansion of 4.5 per cent in 2007 after estimated growth of six per cent in 2006. Walters's expectation for 2008 is a further four per cent increase.

"It's roughly the same thing," said Walters. "Compared to last year, we're saying '07 will be lower because of a number of reasons," he added, citing lower oil prices than in 2006 and no repeat of the billions of dollars in provincial rebate cheques distributed in January 2006.

Calgary Economic Development is forecasting 3.9 per cent growth, but the agency's director of research and business information, Adam Legge, emphasized that needs to be put in context.

"It's very solid. Anything shy of a repeat performance of 2006 would appear from a numbers perspective to be a slowdown," said Legge.

"But that's not a bad thing when you contextualize it about what 2006 actually put upon the city in terms of stretching our capacity."

5 I. i; m. L' ]% E
- l' e3 J' m+ Y+ s: MAlberta is expected to lead Canadian provinces over the medium and longer term.

/ c+ Z5 C5 d% ?- F: K* u) n- z+ [; t" ~But at 4.7 per cent growth in 2007 is expected to be surpassed by Newfoundland and Labrador, where resources projects are set to boost growth dramatically to a five per cent annual rate, but only for a single year.
: w( ?7 j$ a9 d/ V  S* a
$ u! n8 r4 S9 m8 {Growth in Alberta was 6.3 per cent in 2006, the highest in Canada, and will dip to 4.7 per cent this year.
& `( i4 c$ s' z' {7 K. }
* P; m% B( Y0 |: k& i! H6 kThe conference board sees average 4.1 per cent growth in the 2008-to-2011 period and 4.2 per cent in the 2002-to-2011 period, both by far the highest growth rates of any Canadian province.
; @5 I5 @2 p5 _( u3 A
[ 本帖最后由 smalltown 于 2007-4-11 09:18 编辑 ]

老杨

谁能给翻译一下？我出1万金币！

ComfortHardwood

1万！哪！~~~~嘿嘿！
) ^! e& X2 l2 m" K( j+ P就是说我们增长很快很快，全国第一第二。。。然后房子有点贵，要降点，要不就会降个狠的大家就玩完了。我们缺人，所以要降降价吸引人。。。2009年我们就不是全国第一了。2007年发展会比2006年慢，但是还是全国第一！！！

上酸菜

真的有金币了，老杨还是说话算话的啊

warmwinter