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Ken

WORTH REPEATING

! m! O1 C- o8 P+ NAlberta's oil boom is already over


$ S' \" \1 @3 IApr 25, 2007 04:30 AM
) ~" L' N! d( P, Z3 S) L  k( IIn the midst of this energy-driven boom, it's hard to imagine that the gravy train is already slowing down.

. q! Z1 _3 k; R5 H5 x+ YBut the truth is the provincial government faces a 33 per cent drop in oil and gas royalties over the next three years, and Albertans should take a close look at the reasons behind it.

First, the supplies of easy-to-get conventional oil and gas have declined to the point that almost 90 per cent of wells are permanently paying lower royalty rates, many as low as 5 per cent.
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The highest royalty rate is about 30 per cent, but with so many wells now at the "low productivity rate," the average royalty from conventional oil and gas is down to 20 per cent.
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6 q- W, |% M  K) ^) i/ i( B; fNatural gas, the biggest money spinner for years, which pumped $8.3 billion into the treasury in 2005-06, will bring in only about half that amount, $4.6 billion, by 2009-10.
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Conventional oil royalties will also come down. They'll bring in $1 billion this year, one-third less than two years ago, and drop to just $815 million in 2009-10.
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Without the oil sands, Alberta would already be in the midst of those unthinkably dark days when the oil runs out, a time most Albertans imagine is still a long way off.
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It's tempting to ask, why worry? Oil-sands production is expected to last 40 to 50 years. But the oil sands will never yield the rich flow of petrodollars pumped into the treasury by conventional oil and gas.

* b  w% K% S; C& G: {& lDespite the fact that production is rising dramatically, oil-sands royalties will go down, from a high of $2.3 billion last year to $1.1 billion in 2009-10.
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Even when production triples to 3 million barrels a day in 2020, royalties will be stuck at $1.1 billion, the same level as 2004-05, according to one report.
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That's partly because royalties in the oil sands are mostly calculated on raw bitumen, which sells at about half the price of upgraded synthetic crude. While the budget predicts the price of oil to average $58, bitumen is set at $28.
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  \4 X0 N6 K) OThe two oldest oil-sands giants, Suncor and Syncrude, are currently paying royalties on their upgraded oil, but are allowed to choose in the next couple of years whether to switch to bitumen.
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6 A* I- m; i) U$ E3 R  n5 qAlso, there's very little unallocated land left for mining leases, so the revenue from land sales – which hit a record $3.5 billion in 2005-06 – will drop about $1 billion in the next few years.

In the past, energy revenues provided 35 per cent of government spending. That will fall to 29 per cent in Premier Ed Stelmach's first budget.
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6 P" t) ^) O+ {/ g4 r9 D* N& v% iThe royalty review will have an impact on this forecast. But it won't change the fact that the boom years of revenue from conventional oil and gas are behind us.
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8 Q; `; S8 }8 J6 {This is an edited version of an editorial yesterday in the Edmonton Journal.

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